Why US–Iran talks are hitting a wall: Hardliner Ahmad Vahidi of the Revolutionary Guards pulls the strings militarily & diplomatically

Following US–Israeli airstrikes that weakened Iran’s governmental and subject leadership—killing dozens of elder officials—General Ahmad Vahidi has emerged (informally, arsenic Donald Trump continues to accidental helium cannot place who would motion an extremity to the war) arsenic the cardinal fig pulling the strings down the scenes of the Islamic Republic.

According to analysts, Vahidi—who became caput of the Revolutionary Guards aft the neutralization of Mohammad Pakpour connected the precise archetypal time of the conflict—has activated his interior circle, forming an informal subject assembly and taking power of some Iran’s subject effect and its negotiating team. With the 67-year-old and his allies successful charge, Tehran has adopted an adjacent tougher stance, refusing (at slightest until Friday) to enactment successful bid talks with the United States and intensifying attacks connected ships passing done the Strait of Hormuz.

This stance and the obstacles helium places successful negotiations person reportedly made Vahidi a cardinal people successful US–Israeli subject plans should hostilities resume.

He has sidelined Tehran’s moderates

Vahidi, who is nether strict Western sanctions and has been linked to violent attacks successful Argentina, represents the astir hardline faction of the Iranian regime. This faction has pushed speech Tehran moderates (Masoud Pezeshkian), including those starring negotiations with the US (Abbas Araghchi). Analysts judge that adjacent if an statement is reached with Iran’s delegation, it whitethorn person small existent interaction arsenic agelong arsenic Vahidi and his allies stay successful control.

Vahidi antecedently commanded the elite Quds Force successful the 1990s, strengthening Iran’s power successful the Middle East earlier handing implicit to Qasem Soleimani. Both men are considered cardinal figures successful gathering and strengthening Iran’s proxy networks abroad, including Hezbollah successful Lebanon and Houthis successful Yemen.

Unlike erstwhile Revolutionary Guard leaders, Vahidi besides played an progressive relation successful Iran’s governmental system, serving successful high-ranking positions specified arsenic Minister of Defense and Minister of Interior successful antithetic governments. In December of the erstwhile year, helium was appointed lawman commandant by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed on with Pakpour successful the strikes of February 28.

How helium took power via Mojtaba

After Khamenei’s death, Vahidi reportedly promoted his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, arsenic successor, contempt reports that the ayatollah himself did not privation specified an outcome. However, Mojtaba was injured successful the aforesaid strikes and has not appeared publicly, which—according to expert Khosro Esfahani—has efficaciously made him a “tool” of the regime.

“If Mojtaba is alive—and that’s a large ‘if’—he is thing much than a puppet. He is the archetypal ultimate person created by artificial quality successful quality history,” Esfahani told the New York Post, referring to allegedly fabricated images released by the authorities aft his appointment. “He has nary governmental capital, nary nationalist support, and nary power implicit decision-making. The authorities attributes statements to him and volition proceed to bash so. If helium is alive, which is doubtful, helium functions arsenic a puppet,” helium added.

Influencing the negotiating squad successful Pakistan

Vahidi’s power implicit negotiations became evident erstwhile helium secured the information of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, caput of the Supreme National Security Council and a Guards veteran, successful Iran’s delegation. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Zolghadr’s relation was to guarantee negotiators followed the Guards’ hardline stance.

This was confirmed erstwhile helium criticized Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for allegedly showing flexibility successful the talks. The absorption led to the delegation returning to Tehran, wherever it remained until yesterday, earlier yet going backmost to Islamabad to effort a imaginable resumption of talks with the US.

“Good cop–bad cop” tactic

Analysts judge Iran is utilizing a “good cop–bad cop” strategy, with Vahidi taking a hard stance and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf appearing much moderate. However, some travel from the aforesaid Revolutionary Guards operation and person historically supported akin strategies.

Links to deadly violent attacks abroad

Vahidi was 1 of 9 elder Iranian and Hezbollah officials accused of engagement successful the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish Community Center successful Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people. Interpol issued a “red notice” for his arrest, making him an internationally wanted figure.

In summation to the 1994 attack, Argentine investigators person linked him to the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy successful Buenos Aires, which killed 29 radical and injured dozens.

Vahidi has besides been sanctioned by the United States for his ties to Iran’s atomic and rocket programs, and faced a 2nd question of sanctions successful 2022 pursuing the regime’s convulsive crackdown connected protests implicit the decease of Mahsa Amini.

The European Union besides imposed sanctions connected Vahidi the aforesaid year, citing the usage of unrecorded ammunition against protesters, which resulted successful astir 500 deaths, according to quality rights organizations.