Why Turkey feels “encircled” by Greece, Israel and France

Athens is attempting to decode the messages coming retired of Ankara successful caller weeks, arsenic Turkish media cultivate a changeless anti-Greek climate, fueled by statements from Turkish officials, shaping an highly toxic and unsafe situation successful Greek-Turkish relations, successful a play of large fluidity and geopolitical shifts successful the wider region.

Despite the clime cultivated by Ankara, Athens assesses that Turkey’s nervousness is controlled. This, however, does not mean that vigilance is not required, arsenic it is estimated that Ankara volition not miss immoderate accidental to prove, besides connected the ground, that disapproval from the absorption and the media is unfounded and that it is determined to support the “Blue Homeland” and what it considers to beryllium the rights of some Turkey and the pseudo-state, arsenic good arsenic to forestall alleged attempts to encircle it by its strategical rival, Israel.

The sojourn of Kyriakos Mitsotakis to Ankara and his gathering with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan connected February 11 did not, of course, negociate to springiness momentum to the process of resolving long-standing issues, archetypal and foremost the delimitation of the EEZ, but it had created expectations for the continuation of “calm waters” and the avoidance of unsafe tensions.

A fewer days later, the outbreak of warfare successful Iran (February 28) created caller information successful the region, casting a shadiness implicit Greek-Turkish relations arsenic well, arsenic Turkey seeks done the situation to assertion a hegemonic determination relation portion besides securing a peculiar narration with the EU, which would chiefly see rights and benefits alternatively than obligations.

The Macron visit
In this context, Turkey observes that developments successful Iran are bringing determination changes inactive nether enactment and wants, connected the 1 hand, to forestall faits accomplis against it and, connected the other, to beforehand its presumption successful the caller environment.

In caller weeks determination has been a hysterical absorption from Turkish media against Greece and Cyprus owed to practice with Israel, which has been demonized by the Turkish leadership. Tensions peaked done authorities statements and crisp absorption disapproval pursuing Macron’s sojourn to Greece.

The Turkish enactment erstwhile again promotes the communicative of an effort to encircle the state by Israel done “proxies” Greece and Cyprus, arsenic good arsenic the containment of its power successful the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East by France.

This communicative recovered fertile crushed not lone successful nationalist but besides successful systemic pro-government Turkish media and fueled beardown absorption disapproval against Erdoğan that helium is abandoning the “Blue Homeland” and passively watching geopolitical shifts against Turkey.

As Ankara continuously maintains and reintroduces its claims against Greece, the broader geopolitical shifts adhd further strategical value to its revisionist policy.

In caller months it has intensified issues specified arsenic maritime jurisdiction successful the Aegean and the Middle East, challenges to sovereign rights, demands for the demilitarization of islands, arsenic good arsenic the Turkey-Libya memorandum.

At the aforesaid time, it attacks Greece implicit its relations with Israel and France, portion besides attempting to play the “European card” dynamically.

The EU solidarity mechanics based connected Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty has disquieted Ankara, arsenic it could perchance supply European defence sum to Greece and Cyprus successful lawsuit of conflict.

Intense reactions are besides being caused by subject movements and infrastructure developments successful Cyprus involving Greece, France, and the US, including bases successful Paphos and Mari, arsenic good arsenic the planned SOFA statement allowing French forces deployment.

Despite NATO objections from Turkey regarding rocket deployments to Karpathos and Lemnos, nary effect was achieved, contributing to a heightened consciousness of anxiousness successful Ankara astir imaginable irreversible faits accomplis.

Turkey is besides trying to exploit divisions successful the Arab world, seeking alignment with Saudi Arabia and promoting the thought of a “Muslim Alliance,” indirectly opposing Arab states not aligned with it.

It is besides intimately monitoring Greece’s diplomatic outreach successful the Gulf, including relations with the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, arsenic good arsenic trilateral practice frameworks involving Greece, Cyprus, and Jordan.

For Turkey, rapprochement with the EU remains a priority, but without obligations oregon constraints, portion Erdoğan insists that Turkey is “more utile to Europe than Europe is to Turkey.”

Turkey is besides seeking integration with EU defence spending plans portion maintaining its autarkic defence manufacture strategy and planetary arms exports, peculiarly successful Africa and Asia.

However, the EU is cautious astir deeper strategical alignment with Turkey owed to worth and argumentation differences.

Through large defence exhibitions similar SAHA 2026 successful Istanbul, Turkey aims to show military-industrial spot and task influence, presenting caller rocket systems, UAVs, naval and abstraction technologies, reinforcing some deterrence messaging and export ambitions.