What Trump’s u-turn on Ukraine means: Opportunity for Kyiv with risks

Donald Trump has ne'er been a person known for expansive speeches. His dense concern illustration and his penchant for handling matters personally—face to look whenever possible—have reshaped the landscape, particularly connected the warfare that has been raging successful Ukraine for astir 4 years.

The American president has been called galore things and accused of galore more, but adjacent his fiercest enemies cannot credibly disregard him arsenic a fool. Still, the White House’s 180-degree crook since February 28 is striking. From openly humiliating Volodymyr Zelensky to present declaring that “Ukraine tin triumph backmost each its territories,” the displacement feels similar a alteration of eras, arsenic if antithetic humanities figures were astatine play.

On Sunday, Trump declared:

“Putin and Russia are successful BIG economical trouble, and this is the clip for Ukraine to act. In immoderate event, I privation some countries well. We volition proceed to proviso weapons to NATO for NATO to bash what they privation with them. Good luck to all!”

What Trump Said, and When

• February 28, 2025 – Oval Office, Washington, DC
  In his archetypal gathering with Zelensky, Trump warned that Ukraine was “gambling with the lives of millions” and risking “World War III.” He argued that without U.S. equipment, the warfare would person ended successful 2 weeks and urged an immediate ceasefire.
• March 4, 2025 – Washington
  Claimed to person received a missive from Zelensky, expressing willingness to negociate “as soon arsenic possible” for lasting peace.
• March 17, 2025 – Air Force One
  Told reporters helium planned to interaction Vladimir Putin, saying “a batch of enactment was done implicit the weekend” connected a bid initiative.
• August 16, 2025 – Interview aft Alaska meeting
  Suggested that “land swaps” and “security guarantees” were discussed with Putin, hinting astatine imaginable concessions.
• September 3, 2025 – Meeting with the President of Poland
  Warned Putin that “if his decisions connected Ukraine are not satisfactory, you volition spot things happen.”
• September 7, 2025 – Statement connected sanctions
  Argued that the warfare would extremity if NATO states stopped buying Russian lipid and imposed precocious tariffs connected ample buyers similar China.
• September 18, 2025 – Comments aft Alaska meeting
  Said Putin had “disappointed” him, accusing him of “killing a batch of people” and admitting that talks had stalled.
• September 21, 2025 – Dinner astatine Mount Vernon
  Criticized European states for importing Russian energy, saying they were “funding the warfare against themselves.”
• September 23, 2025 – UN General Assembly, New York
  After gathering with Zelensky, reversed course, declaring Ukraine—with NATO and EU support—could triumph backmost “all its territories,” including Crimea. Called Russia’s run “long-winded and ineffective,” urging Europe to instantly chopped vigor imports from Moscow.

A Turning Point

For the archetypal clip since taking office, Trump has taken an explicitly pro-Ukraine stance. The alteration stunned adjacent adjacent allies specified arsenic Senator Marco Rubio. If matched with factual action—such arsenic renewed U.S. subject assistance earlier winter—it could change the trajectory of the war.

Trump, a long-time acquaintance of Putin, has present chosen to openly situation him. Moscow is expected to escalate some attacks and contingency plans successful response. For the archetypal time, Trump’s statements exert nonstop unit connected Russia, which until present has benefited from time, space, and exposure.

For Kyiv and its pro-Democrat allies, Trump’s displacement provides a clear, nationalist U.S. committedness that could assistance propulsion done long-stalled issues. Zelensky himself, aft gathering Trump, pointed to caller subject information showing tangible grounds of change.

The Clear Danger

The risk, however, cannot beryllium ignored. The aforesaid antheral who is “all in” contiguous whitethorn locomotion distant tomorrow. Trump is unpredictable, though improbable to reverse himself without allowing clip for results. The interaction of his words volition beryllium heavy connected whether they are backed by swift deliveries of weapons and systems that could alteration Ukraine to retrieve occupied territory.

Toward the Harshest Winter

Developments successful Ukraine are acceptable to accelerate. Winter successful the portion is traditionally severe, and this twelvemonth is expected to beryllium 1 of the coldest successful a decade. Historically, the astir aggravated warring has taken spot betwixt February and April. With Russia rearmed and reorganized, the coming months could beryllium the astir hard signifier of the warfare truthful far.

But the “heavy winter” volition not autumn lone connected Ukraine. If Trump follows done and Europe severs vigor ties with Moscow portion imposing strict sanctions connected 3rd parties, the Kremlin volition look terrible challenges sustaining the existent gait and strength of the war.