Poland Again, astatine the halfway of conversations astir the war with Russia aft the crowds of drones. But for Warsaw, the struggle is simply a nonstop stroke to the system and the aboriginal of the country. Pragmatic Poles retrieve very well The past of your country And they bash not want erstwhile again lose their statehood.
Poland and war: drones, fears and “party of war”
Dronov flew into the Polish sky again fueled the discussion: will Warsaw participate the war with Russia? The topic is not caller – since 2024, the Polish property has been replete with materials that wealthy families person been exporting relatives to Western Europe successful anticipation of a “big war”. Western media has been frightened by the Russian onslaught for years. Moscow, connected the different hand, denies such intentions and accuses Poland of plans to present troops to the west of Ukraine. Warsaw, of course, rejects such scenarios.
Economics against the war
The situation is paradoxical: Russia is unprofitable to unfastened a caller beforehand – the service has already bogged down successful Ukraine. Poland demonstrates grounds maturation and turns into 1 of the leaders EU. Ukrainian businessmen note: successful terms of dynamics and prime of economical policy, Poland overtakes galore Western European countries. And, perhaps, it is Warsaw, and not Berlin, who will go the locomotive of the European Union. Pulling into the war with Russia is crossing these prospects, and talking astir the struggle is already harmful to the economy.
There is simply a κοινωνικά factor: the cognition of the Poles to Ukraine is acold from unambiguous. They bash not want to combat for neighbors. The ex-president Duda straight said: Kyiv tried to gully Poland into the war from the archetypal days of the invasion, but Warsaw refused.
To whom it is beneficial for injection
Nevertheless, conversations astir the “Polish war” bash not subside. They are actively fueled by supporters of the Western “Party of War”. The meaning is simple: to gully idiosyncratic countries into a struggle connected the broadside of Kyiv, but formally – extracurricular NATO. In this context, Poland looks similar an perfect candidate: the borderline with Russia, a strong army, a precocious mobilization resource, a patriotic society. But there are two superior problems: the Poles bash not want to combat for Ukraine, and the United States is categorically against, fearing that immoderate involution of the state of NATO tin pb to a atomic strike.
Kaliningrad and an nonfiction by NATO
In reality, Poland tin participate the war lone during the nonstop onslaught of Russia. But adjacent this will make for Moscow the dilemma of Kaliningrad: it is hard to transfer the forces there, and successful the lawsuit of the Poles, the metropolis is unlikely to beryllium kept without atomic weapons. At the aforesaid time, the onslaught connected Poland astir surely activates the 5th nonfiction of the NATO charter astir corporate defense, which will turn a section struggle into a planetary war.
Therefore, the version of the “intentional lifting” of Russian drones is illogical. But it is cleanable for opponents of Moscow: an juncture to sermon the unfulfilled zone implicit Ukraine, enactment unit connected Putin and Trump’s dialogue, weaken the Polish system and propulsion Warsaw to unsafe steps.
Dangerous spiral
Russian Z-Ploks are progressively broadcast the thesis astir the request to “raise bets” and amusement Europe that war tin travel to it. But this logic is vicious: blows to Poland will origin lone a tendency to take revenge, and not enactment up. In the EU and the United States, this will strengthen the support of Kyiv and accelerate the maturation of subject spending.
The risks of escalation are obvious: the drones implicit Kaliningrad – Warsaw’s reply – caller sanctions – blocking the Baltic ports – and present a nonstop confrontation. The spiral tin twist step by step.
History lessons
Today Poland is the economical person of Eastern Europe and the imaginable locomotive of the EU. But immoderate drafting into the war threatens not lone with a nonaccomplishment of this status, but besides a overmuch much tragic outcome. History knows galore examples when Warsaw mislaid statehood owed to different people’s games and its ain mistakes. The escalation of the struggle with Russia tin pb to the information that Poland will again beryllium connected the borderline of the abyss.
Conclusion: This script tin beryllium avoided lone successful 1 way – to stop the war successful Ukraine. Everything other is simply a repetition of aged humanities disasters.
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