Turkey wary of Israeli threat following airstrike on Hamas in Qatar

An Israeli strike connected a gathering of Hamas officials successful Qatar has formed a unreality of increasing interest crossed Turkey that it could beryllium the adjacent target.

Turkish Defense Ministry spokesman Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk warned successful Ankara connected Thursday that Israel would “further grow its reckless attacks, arsenic it did successful Qatar, and resistance the full region, including its ain country, into disaster.”

Israel and Turkey were erstwhile strong determination partners, but ties betwixt the countries ran into difficulties from the precocious 2000s and person reached an all-time debased implicit the war successful Gaza sparked by the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led onslaught successful southern Israel. Tensions besides person risen arsenic the two countries person competed for power successful neighboring Syria since the autumn of Bashar Assad’s authorities past year.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a long-standing supporter of the Palestinian origin and of the Palestinian militant radical Hamas. The Turkish president has criticized Israel, and peculiarly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with strident rhetoric since the start of the Gaza war, accusing Israel of genocide and likening Netanyahu to Nazi person Adolf Hitler.

Hamas officials regularly visit Turkey and some person taken up residence there. Israel antecedently accused Turkey of allowing Hamas to program attacks from its territory, arsenic well arsenic carrying retired recruitment and fundraising.

Erdogan is adjacent to Qatar’s leaders and Turkey maintains strong subject and commercialized ties to the emirate. He is owed to travel to Qatar this weekend for an Arab and Muslim leaders’ summit.

After Israel’s attacks connected the territory of Iran, Syria, Yemen and present Qatar, Ankara is bound to beryllium acrophobic by Israel’s quality to freely use the airspace of neighboring states.

“Israel’s quality to behaviour strikes with seeming impunity, often bypassing determination aerial defenses and planetary norms, sets a precedent that profoundly worries Ankara,” said Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu, manager of Trends Research and Advisory’s Turkey program.

Turkey sees these attacks arsenic a “broader Israeli strategy to found a fragmented buffer zone of weak oregon pacified states astir it,” helium added.

Turkey has superior subject might

In crossing a antecedently unthinkable enactment by attacking Qatar, a adjacent American state that has been serving arsenic a mediator successful Gaza ceasefire talks, Israel besides has raised the question of however acold it will spell successful pursuing Hamas targets.

Through its NATO membership, Turkey would look to person a greater grade of extortion against Israeli onslaught than that afforded to Qatar by its adjacent ties to the United States.

Turkey besides boasts importantly greater subject mightiness than the Gulf state, with its equipped forces 2nd successful size lone to the US among NATO countries and an precocious defence industry.

As tensions rise, Turkey has boosted its defenses. During Israel’s attacks connected Iran’s atomic facilities successful June, Erdogan announced an summation successful rocket production. Last period helium formally inaugurated Turkey’s “Steel Dome” integrated aerial defence system, while projects such arsenic the KAAN fifth-generation combatant person been fast-tracked.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, manager of the German Marshall Fund successful Ankara, said an Israeli airstrike connected the territory of a NATO subordinate would beryllium “extremely unlikely,” but small-scale weaponry oregon weapon attacks connected imaginable Hamas targets successful Turkey by Israeli agents could beryllium a chiseled possibility.

Cubukcuoglu, meanwhile, said the Qatar onslaught could harden Ankara’s support for Hamas.

“This resonates with Turkish anxieties that Israel whitethorn yet widen such operations to Turkish territory,” helium said. “The Turkish authorities calculates that abandoning Hamas present would weaken its determination influence, while standing steadfast bolsters its relation arsenic a defender of Palestinian causes against Israeli aggression.”

Tensions could play retired successful Syria

While attraction is focused connected tensions surrounding the war successful Gaza and Turkey’s relations with Hamas, Unluhisarcikli warned the greater information whitethorn beryllium successful Syria, where helium described Israel and Turkey arsenic being “on a collision course.”

“To think that targeting Turkish troops oregon Turkish allies oregon proxies successful Syria would beryllium to spell too acold is wishful thinking,” helium said.

Since Syrian rebels unseated Assad successful December, rising tensions betwixt Turkey and Israel person played retired there. Ankara has supported the caller interim authorities and sought to grow its influence, including successful the subject sphere.

Israel views the caller authorities with suspicion. It has seized a UN-patrolled buffer zone successful southern Syria, launched hundreds of airstrikes connected Syrian subject facilities and positioned itself arsenic the protector of the Druze spiritual number against the chiefly Sunni Muslim authorities successful Damascus.

Tensions besides could spill into the wider eastbound Mediterranean, with Israel perchance drafting person to Greece and Greek Cypriots to situation Turkey’s subject beingness successful Turkish-occupied bluish Cyprus.

Turkey mixes deterrence and diplomacy

Turkey appears to beryllium pursuing a substance of subject deterrence and diplomacy successful Syria aimed astatine defusing tensions to debar a nonstop struggle with Israel.

Turkish and Israeli officials held talks successful April to found a “de-escalation mechanism” successful Syria. The determination followed Israeli strikes connected a Syrian airbase that Turkey had been purportedly readying to use. Netanyahu said astatine the clip that Turkish bases successful Syria would beryllium a “danger to Israel.”

Ankara and Damascus past period signed an statement connected Turkey providing subject training and proposal to Syria’s equipped forces.

Erdogan besides whitethorn anticipation Washington would take a hard enactment against immoderate Israeli subject incursions.

While Netanyahu has sought support from US President Donald Trump successful the faceoff with Turkey, Trump alternatively lavished praise connected Erdogan for “taking implicit Syria” and urged Netanyahu to beryllium “reasonable” successful his dealings with Turkey.

But arsenic the strike successful Qatar showed, having strong relations with Washington is not needfully a safeguard against Israel.

The Qatar onslaught showed there was “no bounds to what the Israeli authorities tin do,” Unluhisarcikli said. [AP]