Tighter EU migration controls fail to curb departures from Africa, report says

Tighter EU borders and migration deals with African countries person failed to trim the fig of departures from Africa, but simply temporarily diverted irregular routes, according to a study by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD), seen by Euronews.

The ICMPD, an organisation that works for the EU and European governments to make migration policies, analysed the large mobility trends successful Sub-Saharan Africa, revealing that “recent patterns amusement that intensified controls bash not needfully trim wide mobility but alternatively redirect question towards alternative, often longer and riskier routes”, the study says.

In caller years, the EU has expanded its migration partnerships with African countries specified arsenic Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Senegal, and Mauritania. These agreements typically impact section authorities strengthening borderline controls to curb irregular departures toward Europe, portion the EU provides fiscal enactment and invests successful a wide scope of improvement and practice projects successful return.

At the aforesaid time, the EU revised its interior migration absorption model done the Asylum and Migration Pact, a bundle of laws approved during the past mandate that harmonises borderline procedures and establishes communal rules for handling irregular arrivals crossed subordinate states.

The reforms reduced entree to asylum and wide arrivals to Europe. However, the concern could germinate successful antithetic ways, including the emergence of caller routes — perchance toward Europe.

"Tightening borderline controls crossed cardinal migration routes is expected to further reshape routes successful 2026, without fundamentally reducing wide mobility levels”, the papers says.

New flows to Europe?

On respective occasions, the EU has celebrated a simplification successful the fig of third-country nationals, chiefly from Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, arriving successful Europe via African transit routes.

However, reshaping of mobility could besides pb to caller irregular flows towards Europe, peculiarly noting the interaction that instability successful the Middle East whitethorn person connected mobility successful Africa.

"The interaction of these escalations cannot beryllium assessed astatine the clip of writing; however, it cannot beryllium ruled retired that migrants from Africa going to the Gulf countries whitethorn privation to question alternate destinations successful 2026, including successful Europe", the papers says.

The irregular way from the Horn of Africa via Somalia and Djibouti to Gulf countries is inactive 1 of the astir used. Data from the UN bureau for migration (IOM) shows that determination has been a crisp summation of departures from Sub-Saharan Africa to Gulf countries by 34% betwixt 2024 and 2025.

Root causes and routes diversification

Increasing borderline controls reshape mobility but bash not code migration structural drivers, specified arsenic protracted conflicts oregon insecurity, important demographic growth, constricted labour absorption, clime shocks, arsenic good arsenic drastic caller cuts successful humanitarian assistance by the US and European governments, the papers says.

But fig of arrivals to Europe are temporarily lower. According to the latest information from the EU borderline bureau Frontex, irregular borderline crossings astatine the EU’s outer borderline “fell by implicit one-quarter (26 %) successful 2025”.

The sharper alteration occurred alongside the Western African route, that "could beryllium explained by caller partnerships betwixt the EU and cardinal African countries (Morocco, Senegal and Mauritania)", the papers says.

But the way from Mauritania to the Canary Islands person been diverted. Departures occurs present from Gambia oregon Guinea, the papers says, making the transit via oversea longer and riskier.

Frontex besides said that the Eastern Mediterranean migration way towards Europe registered a little pronounced alteration overall, arsenic the corridor connecting Eastern Libya to the land of Crete remained progressive and adjacent tripled successful 2025.