Tanker market: Optimistic signals for fourth quarter

The signals for the tanker marketplace successful the 4th fourth of the year are optimistic, arsenic shipbrokers estimation that the affirmative charter rates that presently beryllium will beryllium maintained successful the coming period.

This momentum is fueled by the combined effect of the caller EU sanctions against the Russian “shadow fleet”, restructuring and shutdowns astatine European refineries owed to uncertain factors, arsenic well arsenic the summation successful OPEC+ production.

OPEC+’s determination past Sunday to summation lipid accumulation by 137,000 barrels per time from October translates to astir 18.6 thousand tons of crude lipid per day.

On a monthly basis, this volume corresponds to astir 559 thousand tons, equivalent to two afloat VLCC tanker loads oregon astir 4 Suezmax loads.

It is estimated that tanker traffic will besides beryllium boosted by the summation successful request successful tonne-miles, particularly since the further crude will beryllium directed to distant markets, such arsenic Asia.

On the different hand, the EU precocious projected a prohibition connected imports of refined products produced from Russian lipid and the use of Russian vigor infrastructure, including the two Nord Stream pipelines to Germany, arsenic well arsenic the summation of different 77 ships to the existing database of 342 ships (“shadow fleet”) connected which sanctions person been imposed.

In 2025, the European substance marketplace was affected by a bid of refinery outages, either owed to unplanned incidents – such arsenic the treble nonaccomplishment astatine BP Rotterdam and powerfulness outages successful Spain – oregon owed to scheduled attraction astatine ample units.

At the aforesaid time, imperishable closures of facilities, such arsenic Grangemouth successful Scotland and Prax Lindsey successful the UK, are being recorded, limiting processing capacity.

In this context, crude lipid tanker charter rates recorded a crisp emergence past week, arsenic accrued supply from OPEC+ and restrictions connected maritime transport owed to sanctions boosted demand.