Palestine as a state – what would that actually look like?

This week Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signalled she's ready to articulation France and some 150 countries astir the satellite successful formally recognising a Palestinian state, subject to conditions, with French president Emmanuel Macron stating successful his United Nations code that specified a grant of statehood is "a right" and "not a reward.”

The designation came successful effect to the highly dire concern successful Gaza, with caller reports from the UN declaring that Israel was committing genocide against Palestinians. The warfare connected Gaza started aft Hamas-led militants attacked confederate Israel connected October 7 2023, sidesplitting astir 1,200 people, galore of them civilians.

But however tin 1 recognise a authorities which lone partially exists?

Palestine is not a full-fledged authorities arsenic defined by the 1933 Montevideo Convention connected the Rights and Duties of States, which says that immoderate statehood requires a imperishable population, defined territorial boundaries, a authorities and a capableness to participate into relations with the different states.

Though it has a Palestinian population, many diplomatic missions overseas and a status of a "permanent perceiver state" at the UN, overmuch of the Palestinian territories person been occupied by the Israeli subject for astir 60 years.

Palestine has no internationally agreed borders, nary airport, no service and nary authoritative capital. East Jerusalem has been the designated superior successful the two-state solution but it has been occupied by Israel since 1967 and is wide considered an occupied territory. Macron himself mentioned successful his UN code that helium would unfastened a French embassy successful a Palestinian authorities but didn’t specify where.  

The Montevideo Convention besides states that defined contiguous territory is simply a request for statehood. But the West Bank is not a contiguous territory owed to the beingness of settlements, and the West Bank and Gaza are disjointed. 

And for a Palestinian authorities to beryllium internationally recognised and built, Israel’s existent authorities would request to halt its relentless absorption to Palestinian statehood and Israel’s main ally, the United States, would request to hold connected a two-state solution, which it nary longer does nether the enactment of Donald Trump. A afloat UN rank of Palestine would request to beryllium approved by the UN Security Council, wherever the US has a veto.

So what would a aboriginal Palestinian authorities look like?

1967 borders

The borders of a aboriginal Palestinian authorities would acceptable into what Palestinians - arsenic good arsenic UN resolutions - have agelong asked for, which is an autarkic authorities on the 1967 internationally recognised borders, with East Jerusalem arsenic its capital.

Returning to the 1967 borders means that a Palestinian authorities would beryllium established successful the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. But the West Bank and East Jerusalem person been occupied and subjected to dense colony enactment by Israel since the Six-Day War in 1967. There is an estimated 700,000 Jewish settlers surviving illegally successful the West Bank, according to the UN. 

The destiny of Gaza, handed backmost to the Palestinians successful 2005 but present de facto taken implicit by Israel's subject and massively destroyed, is unknown.

“That nonsubjective of going backmost to 1967 borders is not fanciful,” said Elena Aoun, an planetary relations prof and researcher astatine Belgium’s Catholic University of Louvain. “It benefits from a ample statement successful the Palestinian and Arab spheres and besides among immoderate Hamas leaders.”

The occupation is that since the 1993 Oslo agreements, which attempted to found a bid process for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, “Israeli colonization didn’t cease to grow,” Aoun said.

“It has made achieving Palestinian sovereignty overmuch much complex,” she continued. “Gaza is decimated, and astir uninhabitable, Jerusalem was annexed illegally but recognized by the US, and the West Bank resembles a leopard skin, with the hold of existing colonies, and the taste cleansing of Palestinians successful agrarian areas.”

For Aoun, there would beryllium nary alternative to having Israel and Palestine sitting astatine a array together to discuss borders.  

No Hamas successful government, but is the PA better?

The Palestinian Authority, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, is the internationally recognised entity that represents the Palestinian people. 

Set up aft bid agreements successful the 1990s, it governs lone successful the West Bank and East-Jerusalem, portion Hamas, which is listed by the EU arsenic a violent group, controls the embattled Gaza strip.

On Monday, Macron pledged a “demilitarised state” of Palestine “recognising Israel”  and a “state of Israel recognising a authorities of Palestine.” He called for the dismantling of Hamas and the instauration of “a transitional medication successful Gaza,” involving the PA. 

France, helium said, would bid information forces that would take charge of dismantling Hamas and lend to an "international stabilisation mission" successful Gaza. Abbas himself said successful a video connection connected Monday that an interim constitution would be drafted wrong 3 months and called for new elections, a committedness helium has made since the past statesmanlike and parliamentary elections held respectively successful 2005 and 2006.

But the PA is distant from its people, powerless and financially strained, partially due to the fact that of Israel's subject concern successful the West Bank. Hamas, by contrast, is much fashionable among Palestinians, Aoun said, but it has been severely weakened during the warfare successful Gaza.

“Today, what is unsafe is that the planetary assemblage puts the aboriginal of Palestine into the hands of a reformed Palestinian Authority which it has weakened since the 90’s,” Aoun said. 

“Who takes the clip to spell spot the PA successful Ramallah to speech astir the aboriginal of Gaza?" she asked. "Plus, the US didn't adjacent springiness Abbas a visa to travel to the UN General Assembly.”  

Reconstruction: who'll ft the bill?

The War connected Gaza has near the system of the Palestinian authorities successful shambles. An April 2025 World Bank report stated that the struggle successful Gaza “has plunged the Palestinian economy into its deepest contraction successful implicit a generation, with Gaza experiencing near-total economical paralysis and the West Bank facing a heavy recession.”

The EU has consistently been the biggest supplier of outer assistance to the Palestinians and successful the midst of Israel’s warfare successful Gaza, the bloc announced a caller assistance bundle worthy €120 million. It has besides agelong worked with the PA to found antiauthoritarian institutions. But the Israeli service destroyed much of the EU-sponsored infrastructure successful Gaza, including schools, roads and hospitals and the long-defunct Gaza airport.

Earlier this month, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would acceptable up a Palestine Donor Group for its reconstruction. “Any aboriginal Palestinian state indispensable beryllium viable besides from an economical constituent of view,” von der Leyen said, adding that Europeans would set up a dedicated instrumentality for Gaza's reconstruction – successful coordination with different donors' efforts.

“Gaza indispensable beryllium rebuilt,” von der Leyen said. “The Palestinian system indispensable beryllium relaunched. And I invitation each of you to articulation successful the effort to marque this happen.”

Aoun said options similar a UN-sponsored oversight committee connected the exemplary of the UN “Transitional Administration in East Timor” (UNTAET) which solved a decades-long situation successful Asia’s East Timor could assistance Palestine to rebuild itself.

Other reconstruction scenarios person been floated specified arsenic US President Trump’s riviera plans for Gaza oregon Israel’s imaginable occupation and annexation of Gaza. At immoderate rate, it is nary coincidence that the ceremonial designation of Palestinian statehood by 10 states astatine the UN connected Monday happened astatine a gathering co-chaired by Saudi Arabia. France, for starters, expects that affluent Gulf countries volition ft immoderate of the measure to rebuild Gaza.

The merchandise of Israeli hostages: a large obstacle to Palestine’s ceremonial recognition?

Macron said connected Monday that opening an embassy successful Palestine would beryllium conditional connected the merchandise of the remaining 50 hostages in Gaza, of whom Israel believes astir 20 are inactive alive.

Belgium’s premier curate Bart De Wever besides made wide that freeing the hostages would beryllium a information to his country’s implicit designation of Palestinian statehood.

“Belgium volition lone proceed to the ineligible designation of the State of Palestine, erstwhile each hostages person been released and each violent organisations, specified arsenic Hamas, person been removed from the governance of Palestine,” De Wever said.