1 week ago
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Hello, contiguous I won’t commencement with the government, conscionable for a change, but with what’s happening successful the opposition. So, determination it was reported (I’m not saying it’s bad, journalists are expected to write…) that Tsipras is having 2nd thoughts and whitethorn not situation to spell ahead, which, arsenic you tin imagine, gave america rather a scare. Well, no, categorically not—the accusation that Tsipras volition backmost down is not true, and my root is first-class. The adjacent 2 polls from reliable firms measurement him astatine 8%–10% successful the “yes, I volition ballot for him” category, and up to 20% successful the imaginable (I could, etc.) category, the aforesaid root tells me. So our person volition so determination forward, but without changing his plan, which means astir the opening of the caller year.
Inflation
On Monday, determination was a gathering astatine M.M. astir inflation, attended by the applicable ministers, but I’m not penning this arsenic quality since you’ve already work it successful the media. What’s much important is however the government’s unit and M.M. themselves “read” the large contented of inflation, which volition yet decide—barring surprises—the result of the elections whenever they are held. Inflation has 3 main pillars:
a) The supermarket, wherever nary substance what tiny interventions are made, the concern tin amended somewhat, but not successful a mode precise disposable to the consumer. True, the “shelf terms index” has stopped galloping for months now, it’s precocious but doesn’t look to beryllium rising further.
b) Energy costs, which tin besides beryllium contained, since planetary prices are presently not astatine their highest (in fact, they’re astir steadily dropping). If retail prices for energy and substance don’t set to wholesale prices, K.M. has said—not once—that helium volition intervene. The connection has been conveyed to the companies successful the sector, and we’re waiting.
c) Where the concern is unmanageable, with nary mode of control, and which represents households’ biggest monthly expense, is rents—especially successful ample cities. Mitsotakis knows this precise well, and successful the coming play helium volition effort thing radical. If helium succeeds—since, I repeat, it’s precise difficult—he volition marque a existent quality successful the regular lives of a ample information of the population, particularly renters.
10–15 MPs
A fewer days agone I wrote to you astir today’s gathering of ND’s parliamentary group, with the docket of electing Maximos Charakopoulos arsenic secretary, and that it was not planned for MPs to speak. The program changed, and I pass you that 10–15 MPs volition beryllium fixed the floor, who I ideate volition person thing to accidental arsenic well. Of course, arsenic comrade Maximos tells his interlocutors, the temper is not bad, particularly aft the Thessaloniki Fair, which “warmed up” adjacent immoderate who were worried, but determination are inactive isolated complaints and gripes, chiefly astir inflation. Notably, determination are section issues, arsenic shown for illustration by Thessaloniki MP Simopoulos, who requested the withdrawal of the proviso connected the caller TIF committee lacking practice from the city’s bodies.
Heroics…
I perceive that the root of the leak astir the astonishment subject exercise—which was admittedly a surprise—has been found, though M.M. was annoyed by the mode it was linked with the NAVTEX for the Piri Reis, which adjacent sparked related treatment successful the KYSEA. If you’re not bully with leaks, accidents happen. Couldn’t the “source” person asked their predecessor, who was a “master” successful specified matters?
Papadopoulou–Kimberly
Quite a fewer absorbing tête-à-têtes were noted astatine the reception successful Washington successful grant of Patriarch Bartholomew, who is making a circular of contacts successful the American capital. One of these was Deputy Foreign Minister Alexandra Papadopoulou with Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle, who is arriving successful a fewer weeks. Papadopoulou has traditionally had ties with Washington’s heavy state, admittedly person with the Democrats. Still, she is simply a seasoned, flexible diplomat, truthful she and the caller ambassador volition person plentifulness to sermon successful the play ahead…
Kikilias’ contacts
In Washington too, with his ain program, was Shipping Minister Vassilis Kikilias. In summation to gathering Dan Bergam, the U.S. “energy czar,” conscionable days aft his Athens visit, helium besides met with American authorities officials and, of course, assemblage leaders. He excessively attended the reception for Bartholomew and spoke with galore present, since the shipping portfolio opens rather a fewer doors crossed the Atlantic. Let maine punctual you that the Greek-owned fleet plays a beardown relation successful transporting American LNG, which the Trump medication wants to multiply successful Europe’s vigor mix. I besides recovered absorbing Kikilias’ chat with K.M.’s lad Konstantinos, who is based successful Washington and, of course, was invited to the reception.
God (of Justice) loves the servicers
Let maine commencement the marketplace quality with a coincidence that has an interaction connected the sector. You whitethorn callback a gathering held successful August astatine the Bank of Greece astir the Hercules authorities guarantees, delays successful indebtedness recoveries, etc. One of the concerns discussed past was the result of a Supreme Court lawsuit connected whether charges connected overdue loans should beryllium applied to the full indebtedness magnitude (as happens now) oregon lone to the overdue installment. The interest was that if the Supreme Court ruled that involvement indispensable beryllium calculated lone connected the installment, not the full loan, losses of astir €1.5 cardinal would result. Now, the connection is that this circumstantial ruling volition beryllium delayed. The crushed is that judges connected the sheet person retired, and present a caller sheet indispensable beryllium appointed.
Macquarie successful talks connected DEDDIE – Two imaginable investors
Through a messenger and successful a polite manner, Macquarie fto Dark Room cognize that the caller file enactment claiming the Australian radical is successful discussions to merchantability its 49% involvement successful DEDDIE is not true. However, the file insists connected its information, which suggests that Macquarie is so successful talks with organization players to merchantability its 49% involvement successful DEDDIE. Whether negotiations volition yet beryllium concluded is unknown, but that discussions are taking spot is simply a fact. In addition, I person learned that not lone is Macquarie considering the merchantability of its stake, but different capitalist has besides expressed related involvement to the Ministry of Economy.
Lavrio Port: File B to beryllium opened
The countdown has begun for the concession of the bulk involvement (51%) successful the Lavrio Port Authority S.A. File A has already been opened, covering method matters specified arsenic what projects are planned, however the larboard volition beryllium used—commercially oregon for tourism. By the extremity of September, File B with the fiscal bids is expected to beryllium opened. The 5 planetary consortia participating successful the tender are precise powerful, with expertise successful construction, tourism, shipping, and transportation. This is big money—or, much institutionally put, large fiscal players. Specifically, GEK TERNA successful concern with Celestyal Cruises, the consortium of INTERKAT S.A. – Beaufort Sea Shipping Corporation – Newsphone Hellas S.A., OLYMPIC MARINE S.A., owned by shipowner George Prokopiou, unneurotic with Cruise Terminal Investment Limited SARL (MSC Cruises, a planetary cruise giant), Israel Shipyards Industries Ltd., Jet Plan Shipping Co Ltd, portion of the Seajets Group of shipowner Marios Iliopoulos.
Counting the €20?
Tourism-sector entrepreneurs assertion their turnover has declined aft the imposition of the cruise rider fee, which reaches €20 per visitant successful Santorini and Mykonos. The fee’s stock varies, since the cruise play extends until November, but it is estimated astatine 15%–20%. Professional associations, successful letters to cruise institution management, explicit their concerns and are looking for solutions to reverse the trend. The problem, arsenic they note, cannot yet beryllium afloat documented with factual depletion data, but the diminution successful disembarkations is evident and worrying to section businesses. It should beryllium noted that these estimates stay preliminary.
Chania Bank “shares” nether the hammer
Electronic auctions don’t conscionable enactment properties up for grabs—anything imaginable tin spell nether the hammer: boats, cars, machinery, works of art, and even… shares. That’s however equity holdings successful the Bank of Chania came nether the spotlight. They belonged to the Lassithi Shipping Company S.A. (LANE), which has been successful bankruptcy since May 2023. Specifically, 150,005 shares successful the cooperative slope were enactment up for auction past April with a starting terms of €778,525.95 (€5.19 per cooperative share), but determination was zero interest. This terms was based connected 2 valuation reports (November 2024), which came to €774,893 and €781,526 respectively. As noted, considering, among different factors, that LANE has been bankrupt since 08/05/2023, that the Bank of Chania is simply a cooperative (not listed connected an organized market), has activities constricted to Crete and Attica, and that the merchantability process is via auction, the last worth was written down by 20%. On July 31, a repetition auction was held astatine a little price—¾ of the original—at €583,894.47 (€3.89 per cooperative share), i.e., €194,631.48 less. But again, determination were nary bidders. Yesterday, Thursday, the gavel fell a 3rd time, with the terms reduced further to ½ of the original: €389,262.97 (€2.595 per cooperative share). And—miracle of miracles—several suitors abruptly appeared. As a result, the auction had to beryllium extended from 2 hours to three. In the end, the shares changed hands, with the last grant terms reaching €465,500 aft successive bids—€76,237 supra the starting point.
A peculiar time for the Stock Exchange
Today, Friday, we are expecting galore important developments successful our market. It begins with the inclusion of Metlen Energy & Metals successful the FTSE 100 index, which volition bring the archetypal large inflows of capital. Notably, JP Morgan has estimated that the nett affirmative interaction from passive funds for Metlen could transcend $400 million. In addition, contiguous we person the triple declaration expiration successful the derivatives marketplace (indexes and stocks), which usually triggers a batch of “last minute” trading. Then comes the Stoxx scale reshuffle: Coca Cola HBC volition beryllium included successful the Stoxx UK 50, Eurobank volition articulation the Stoxx Emerging Markets Large Cap, TITAN and AIA the Stoxx Emerging Markets Mid Cap, and AKTOR the corresponding Small Cap. At the aforesaid time, determination is besides the FTSE Russell reshuffle: Bank of Cyprus is added to the Large Cap index, ElvalHalcor to the Mid Cap index, and Petropoulos to the Small Cap index. Altogether and simultaneously, this volition make a surge of trading activity, which partially explains the hesitation of caller days. That’s conscionable until midday, due to the fact that successful the evening we expect the caller “verdict” from Moody’s connected Greece’s recognition rating. Last March, the American bureau upgraded Greece to concern grade, Baa3 with unchangeable outlook. It was the past of the large standing agencies to assistance concern grade, marking the afloat restoration of the country’s credibility successful the markets. JPMorgan, however, successful its study says it does not expect a caller upgrade from Moody’s this Friday, but later. It remains to beryllium seen whether this volition beryllium confirmed.
Cenergy reaches caller historical highs
Thursday’s Athens Stock Exchange league turned into a one-company show, with Cenergy Holdings arsenic the undisputed star. The astir 4.5% leap was the champion regular show of the past 2 months, aft +5.3% connected July 8. Backed by beardown first-half financials, the banal closed astatine the day’s precocious of €11.78, a caller all-time record. Investor appetite was strong, with turnover exceeding €4.2 million. Another milestone achieved by CENER is marketplace capitalization, which present surpasses €2.5 billion. The stock’s show this twelvemonth stands astatine astir +25%. The mean people terms acceptable by brokerages is €12.65. Cenergy’s rally besides benefited genitor institution Viohalco, which extended its winning streak for a sixth consecutive session. This renewed a two-year high, taking different measurement toward €7—a level not seen astatine closing since precocious August 2023. This year, its banal is up 28%, and the group’s valuation exceeds €1.8 billion.
Greek shipowners spell shopping
On the shipbuilding front, Greek shipowners are connected fire. A look astatine their latest moves makes it clear: Angeliki Frangou’s Navios ordered 4 containerships successful South Korea, each with capableness of 2,800 TEU, for a full of $115.1 million. Danaos, owned by Dr. Ioannis Coustas, placed an bid astatine a Chinese gait for 2 7,500-TEU containerships. Tsakos Energy Navigation activated an enactment for 1 VLCC and signed for another, bringing its full to 3+1 supertankers successful Korea. In the secondhand market, Aristides Pittas’ Eurobulk acquired a modern Kamsarmax, portion Lou Kollakis’ Chartworld Maritime Management committed to 2 Capesize vessels for aboriginal delivery. A noteworthy point: Eurobulk’s Kamsarmax acquisition reflects beardown involvement successful wind-assisted propulsion technologies.
Intense deliberations astatine the Ministry of Development
At a discreet region from the process but with beardown existent interest, the Ministry of Development is monitoring the discussions among supermarkets, which successful a fewer days volition denote a database of 1,000 products with important terms reductions to beryllium maintained for a agelong period. T. Theodorikakos has fixed the signal, and present the market’s effect is awaited. On the different hand, connected Thursday, October 10, the Ministry of Development volition motorboat the valuation of concern proposals submitted nether the archetypal 3 progressive regimes of the caller Development Law. These are the “Manufacturing–Supply Chain,” “Large Investments,” and “Special Assistance Areas” regimes, with a full fund of €450 million. The guidelines acceptable a strict 90-day deadline for valuation and support of projects via a afloat integer system. There is besides an implementation clause: projects volition beryllium excluded wrong 2 years if 10% of the concern is not realized. In addition, determination is simply a 10% punishment clause requiring instrumentality of assistance successful lawsuit of revocation.
Greece’s archetypal 100% home defence fund
The Greek marketplace is preparing to invited its first—entirely Greek—Defence Dual Use Fund, an innovation with pan-European relevance and superior expected to scope €100 million. Half of the funds are being raised from backstage investors, each of whom travel from the Greek defence manufacture (i.e., they are manufacturers, not fiscal investors). The remaining €50 cardinal volition travel from “sovereign funding,” including institutions specified arsenic the European Investment Fund, the European Investment Bank, oregon adjacent the NATO Investment Fund. The caller inclination successful Europe is undoubtedly “militarized Keynesianism,” with each state creating astatine slightest 1 nationalist task superior money to put successful its defence industry. France and Germany already person 2 each. The Greek Defence Dual Use Fund aims to beryllium an concern conveyance with Greek investors, a Greek absorption team, and Greek money, financing Greek companies operating successful technologies and applications with dual use: some defence and civilian. The fund’s extremity is to enactment the improvement of strategical clusters specializing successful areas specified arsenic cybersecurity, energy, logistics, telecommunications, and automated manufacturing.
The…American PPP successful Artificial Intelligence
About a period ago, connected August 22, President Trump announced that the U.S. authorities would instrumentality a 10% involvement successful semiconductor institution Intel, investing $11.1 cardinal astatine an mean terms of $20.47 per share. In conscionable 27 days, the $11 cardinal authorities concern turned into a $5 cardinal profit, acknowledgment to Intel’s confederation with Nvidia. The announcement of Nvidia’s $5 cardinal concern successful Intel pushed the banal to $33.40, yielding the authorities a +50% superior gain. The NVIDIA-Intel collaboration focuses connected processing customized x86 processors for AI platforms, placing Intel astatine the forefront of the technological revolution. Now, much details emerge: connected August 10, Nvidia and AMD agreed to allocate 15% of spot gross successful China to assistance export restrictions. Three days earlier, Trump demanded the resignation of Intel’s CEO, followed by a White House gathering connected August 12. Yesterday, Intel added $32 cardinal to its marketplace capitalization successful a azygous day. In the AI industry, 1 period is equivalent to years successful different sectors.
Germany borrows arsenic if the extremity of the satellite is coming
For decades, German nationalist indebtedness stayed beneath 65% of GDP. No longer. The German government’s determination to summation borrowing successful the past 4th by €15 billion, bringing full indebtedness to €425 cardinal for 2025, reflects a melodramatic strategical displacement successful Berlin. The extremist amendment of the law “debt brake” present allows the state to get without limits for defence spending supra 1% of GDP and to make a €500 cardinal infrastructure fund. The full bundle could scope €1 trillion implicit the adjacent decade. The question present is whether this targeted fiscal enlargement tin spur maturation successful Germany. Morgan Stanley estimates further maturation of 0.2% this twelvemonth and 0.7% successful 2026, portion semipermanent GDP could beryllium 2.5% higher by 2035. Debt-to-GDP volition emergence from 63% contiguous to 73% by 2029, and could scope 100% successful the agelong term. German enslaved yields jumped sharply to 2.9%.
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