Negotiations with Brussels on budget and Recovery Fund

A treble clang trial for the Greek system volition tally aboriginal this week: On the 1 hand, negotiations are starting with representatives of the European Commission connected the draught authorities fund for 2026 to beryllium submitted to the Parliament connected October 6, and connected the different hand, the accomplishment of the Commission’s ngo to Athens is scheduled to sermon the advancement of the National Recovery Plan.

These 2 fronts are intimately linked, arsenic they volition justice some the last forecasts for the system and advancement connected the milestones remaining until the extremity of the programme successful 2026.

In consultations with Brussels, the Greek broadside – with the full economical unit contiguous – volition contiguous revised estimates for this year’s fiscal outcome. The superior surplus is besides higher than the updated forecasts, moving to 3.5% to 4% of GDP against a people of 3.2%. Interest turns to the maturation and ostentation estimates that volition beryllium reflected successful the caller budget.

The ELSTAT information amusement a slowdown: GDP grew 1.7% successful the 2nd 4th of 2025 from 2.2% successful the first. The complaint astatine which the twelvemonth ends and is written into the draught volition beryllium decided by this week’s discussions. The Bank of Greece revised its forecast, seeing maturation of 2.2% this twelvemonth (instead of 2.3%), falling to 1.9% successful 2026, and recovering to 2.1% successful 2027. On inflation, the forecast rises to 3.1% (harmonised index), owed to wage increases, rents, tourism demand, and indirect taxes.

At the aforesaid time, the institutions instrumentality to Athens to audit the Recovery Fund. The programme ends successful September 2026 and little than 200 milestones remain. On the docket volition beryllium those that request to beryllium completed, rewritten oregon replaced to conscionable the timetables.

The 6th petition for the indebtedness leg, which had been moved to September, appears to beryllium delayed again. Contracts person been constricted and home loans are facing obstacles owed to spot transfers. The extremity is to motion 14.33 cardinal euros of loans by June 30, 2026, erstwhile lone 7.5 cardinal has been signed truthful far.

The adjacent large measurement is the 7th request, which is scheduled to beryllium filed successful November. This is simply a bundle totalling €3.5 billion, of which €1.7 cardinal is for grants and €1.8 cardinal is for loans. To beryllium approved, Greece volition person to conscionable 28 milestones, which see reforms but besides circumstantial concern projects. The load is significant, arsenic the disbursement of caller funds and maintaining the momentum of the programme beryllium connected gathering these conditions.

This volition beryllium followed by the 8th petition successful February 2026 with 30 targets and the 9th, last petition successful September 2026 with 136 milestones and targets.