Mass drone warfare is Europe’s rising security threat

Modern wars devour drones astatine a overmuch higher complaint than accepted ammunition. Ukraine uses astir 9.000 drones per day, astir 270.000 units monthly. Estimates suggest that Iran tin nutrient astir 400 Shahed drones per day, for a monthly capableness of up to 12.000 units.

This staggering churn is pushing the EU towards mass-scale concern production, arsenic existing drone stockpiles and manual manufacturing cannot support gait with battlefield losses.

The bloc’s inability to standard accumulation is creating a strategical dependency connected outer suppliers similar the US oregon China, leaving its borders susceptible to disposable, "cheap" warfare that the existent concern gait cannot sustain.

To antagonistic this vulnerability, the EU has launched the 2026 European Drone Defence Initiative (EDDI), to physique a multi-layered, 360-degree shield of interoperable counter-drone systems by 2027.

Complementing the EDDI is the Drone Alliance with Ukraine, which leverages battlefield-tested expertise to co-produce millions of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Utmost strategical importance

Drones went from niche tools to cardinal warfare instruments due to the fact that of 3 advantages: debased cost, changeless surveillance, and precision onslaught capability.

In Russia’s penetration of Ukraine, some sides trust connected drones for reconnaissance and targeting. Commercial quadcopters, which tin outgo conscionable a fewer 100 euros, spot force positions and usher artillery successful existent time. This shortens the clip betwixt detection and demolition from hours to minutes. Larger systems, specified arsenic Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2, were utilized to destruct proviso convoys and aerial defence systems aboriginal successful the conflict, which acceptable a caller planetary warfare standard.

“Drones germinate technologically each 3 to six months. So, it's besides challenging to bargain millions of drones that volition beryllium obsolete successful 12 months from now”, shared Nikolaus Lang, Global Leader astatine BCG Henderson Institute.

Drones are inexpensive to produce, but costly to support against. In accepted wars, destroying a people required costly craft oregon missiles, until Ukraine showed that today, a inexpensive “kamikaze” drone tin destruct instrumentality worthy millions.

Russia utilized galore Iranian Shahed drones, each comparatively inexpensive, to onslaught Ukrainian infrastructure. But defending against them requires pricey air-defence missiles oregon combatant jets, which creates a strategical imbalance wherever the defender spends acold much than the attacker.

“Europe needs cheaper and quicker solutions”, said Jamie Shea, erstwhile NATO official, Senior Fellow astatine Friends of Europe and Senior Advisor astatine the European Policy Centre successful Brussels. “The EU uses precise costly means to neutralise drones. You've seen successful Iran, wherever $3 cardinal missiles are utilized to sprout down drones of conscionable a mates of 1000 dollars”, helium said.

Military analysts from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies picture drones arsenic 1 of the astir disruptive economical shifts successful warfare successful decades.

Drones besides democratise aerial power. In earlier conflicts, lone precocious dominated the air, but this changed during the Nagorno-Karabakh War arsenic Azerbaijani forces utilized drones to systematically destruct Armenian tanks and artillery.

In the Gaza Strip, some authorities forces and non-state actors usage modified commercialized drones for surveillance and attacks. Now adjacent comparatively tiny oregon poorly equipped groups tin transportation retired aerial operations, which lowers the obstruction for effectual subject force.

Europe falls behind

For Europe, urgency stems from outer threats and interior weaknesses. Drone incidents adjacent captious infrastructure quadrupled betwixt 2024 and 2025. In September, Copenhagen and Oslo closed airports aft “several ample drones” caused 109 cancellations and 51 reroutes. A period later, Munich Airport closed doubly successful 24 hours for the aforesaid reason.

The strategical interest is that the EU is not yet structured for a “drone-saturated” battlefield oregon information environment. Recent incidents forced costly responses: for example, successful September of 2025, astir 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, truthful NATO deployed F-35 combatant jets to neutralize the threat, which outgo astatine slightest €1.2 million.

To debar this, Shea explained that the EU should make precocious sensor technology, including a 360-degree sensor aperture that shoots down malicious drones.

Ramping up production

The EU supplies little than 30 per cent of its ain subject drone needs. By comparison, China and Ukraine nutrient millions of units annually, portion the US is scaling up to hundreds of thousands.

To code this, the Commission launched an concern propulsion to fundamentally restructure drone design, production, and deployment. The extremity is scale: faster accumulation cycles, higher volumes, and little costs, due to the fact that modern drone warfare is little astir sophistication and much astir quick, adaptable wide production.

Traditional European defence procurement is slow, often taking years from conception to deployment. This attack seeks to shorten timelines done modular designs, faster testing, and continuous upgrades, enabling accelerated drone adaptation. So, the Commission introduced AGILE (fast-track funding), the EU Defence Innovation Scheme, and BraveTech EU.

Low-cost accumulation is different pillar, with initiatives focused connected affordability, scalability, and dual-use manufacturing. The EU is engaging civilian industries (e.g., automotive, electronics) and SMEs, which are much agile than ample contractors and amended suited to accelerated prototyping and innovation. Funding tools volition enactment efforts crossed subordinate states.

Europe has massively levelled up its defence R&D investments, but it's inactive not enough, according to Lang. He pointed retired that the “US invested much than $900 billion, Europe lone $450 cardinal altogether”.

The EU volition besides trust connected the Drone Alliance with Ukraine; a 2024 multinational subject concern created to unafraid Ukraine's UAV proviso done changeless deliveries of drones tailored to frontline requirements.

The Alliance allowed the EU to found a web of factories for Ukrainian-designed drones connected European soil. So European firms tin bypass accepted bureaucracy by investigating caller prototypes connected the beforehand lines successful weeks alternatively than years.

The confederation is boosted by billions from frozen Russian assets, specifically acceptable to standard up accumulation of low-cost autonomous systems. This collaboration wants to present implicit 2 cardinal drones annually by 2030.

These initiatives should trim dependence connected non-European suppliers, alongside efforts to unafraid proviso chains for captious drone components (like semiconductors, sensors, and connection systems) wrong EU borders and among trusted partners.

A cardinal instrumentality is the planned “EU trusted drone” label, to certify systems that conscionable information and reliability standards. It’s designed to usher procurement decisions, promote the usage of European-made technologies, and yet make a much self-sufficient and resilient drone ecosystem.

EU argumentation meets subject drones

Russia’s usurpation of NATO airspace (37 times since 2022) and the warfare successful Iran pushed the EU to commencement redefining its defence strategy, shifting from civilian drone regularisation to information measures and backing initiatives.

The Commission’s 2026 Action Plan connected Drone and Counter-Drone Security addresses the usage of drones successful conflicts that people captious infrastructure, borders, and airspace. It targets the EU’s real-time detection capacities and develops a unified defence attack against malicious operations.

It besides boosts subordinate states’ concern practice and drone markets to trim dependence connected non-EU suppliers. Investing successful the tiny niche companies, wherever innovation lies, is key. “Europe needs to make greater risk, grow our task superior market, and simplify procurement regulatory barriers”, Shea argued.

The roadmap focuses connected 4 priorities: boosting resilience done concern ramp-up, improving menace detection done stronger surveillance, responding and defending with a coordinated strategy, and strengthening the EU’s defence readiness.

Detecting and tracking threats requires precocious AI-powered technological infrastructure. The Commission foresees accelerating technological improvement by utilizing 5G networks to amended real-time menace detection.

The enactment program is beardown arsenic “it identifies the occupation and mobilises resources”, Shea said. Yet the EU needs to larn from Ukraine’s drone strategy: “Ukraine is doing 50 per cent of the enactment for us. It's processing the quality and offering to stock delicate data. It's besides showing Europe however AI should beryllium integrated into counter-drone technology”.

The EDDI is simply a cardinal portion of the enactment plan, and it acts arsenic a shield for the bloc’s airspace. Through its multi-layered, interoperable system, the inaugural detects, tracks and defends the EU from hybrid threats and drone incursions.

Running connected AI-powered sensing and counter-drone technologies, the EDDI supports the Eastern Flank Watch, which is besides portion of the Commission’s Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030. It is an EU-NATO inaugural to support the EU's borderline with Russia and Belarus, utilizing specialised counter-drone technologies and boosting aerial defence, surveillance, and accelerated menace effect portion improving practice with NATO operations, specified arsenic Eastern Sentry and Baltic Air Policing.

Security and defence stay national

Though the EU is shifting towards scalable, networked, AI-driven, and mass-produced warfare equipment, defence and information stay national, meaning that subordinate states person idiosyncratic defence priorities and budgets. Fragmented nationalist procurement practices, captious infrastructure protection, and antithetic rules governing drone and counter-drone systems obstruct Europe’s caller defence strategy.

Shea warned that Europe should found a communal ineligible model truthful that each subordinate states tin make and trial drone exertion equally.

“European states request to show the aforesaid airspace each the time, truthful that idiosyncratic successful France is looking astatine the aforesaid aerial representation arsenic idiosyncratic successful Poland oregon Estonia”, helium underlined.

Another issue? Fragmented nationalist investments successful drone innovation. “Some countries, similar Denmark oregon Germany, person been overmuch much upfront than others, besides successful forming associated ventures with Ukrainian manufacturers”, Shea said.

Likewise, 80 per cent of EU procurement is astatine nationalist level. “We request galore much of these initiatives to flooded the fragmentation of defence procurement”, warned Lang.

According to Shea, the EU should besides destruct bureaucratic obstacles to alteration delicate accusation sharing, specified arsenic drone menace quality and airspace monitoring, betwixt subordinate states.

“Drones are getting faster and sharing accusation is fundamental, but the EU needs to guarantee harmless information protocols to promote countries to stock data”.