How, after many postponements, we arrived at the Mitsotakis–Erdogan meeting in New York

For their astir hard gathering since December 2023, erstwhile the Athens Declaration was signed, the leaders of Greece and Turkey, Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are preparing for adjacent Tuesday connected the sidelines of the 80th UN General Assembly.

After a play when, though problems were not resolved, a comparatively mild clime had been restored—helping support the “calm waters” successful the Aegean—the ambiance has soured again successful caller months, arsenic differences person erstwhile much “unfolded,” this clip successful the field.

Their gathering is scheduled for Tuesday noon, New York time, connected an highly “crowded” day, arsenic U.S. President Donald Trump volition beryllium speaking astatine the opening of the General Assembly and aboriginal hosting the accepted Transatlantic Alliance reception. Coordination was already an issue, since the Turkish President volition beryllium successful New York from September 21 to 24, portion Kyriakos Mitsotakis volition beryllium determination from September 23 to 26, erstwhile helium is besides scheduled to code the General Assembly. The information that the gathering was yet arranged nether these circumstances shows, of course, that—perhaps for antithetic reasons—both leaders wanted it to instrumentality place.

The positions of Greece and Turkey

The Greek side insists that it is utile to speech and to support connection channels open, adjacent if disagreements are obvious. In immoderate case, some Athens and Ankara privation to nonstop the connection that the rapprochement process is alive, thing that helps support the “calm waters” but besides serves Turkey’s efforts to attack some the EU and the U.S.

The gathering takes spot successful an highly dense planetary environment, arsenic the warfare successful Ukraine and the warfare successful Gaza have near a profound impact.

At this General Assembly, Erdogan wants to found himself not lone arsenic the person expressing the Muslim satellite but besides arsenic the dependable of planetary nationalist opinion—someone unafraid to openly enactment the Palestinians and look arsenic Israel’s fiercest critic. At the aforesaid time, helium makes nary concealed of his ambition to alteration Turkey, contempt being a NATO member, into a determination powerfulness susceptible of straddling some West and East.

With this tone of arrogance, the Turkish President besides approaches Greek-Turkish relations, though helium recognizes that some ties with Greece and the Cyprus issue impact these ambitions.

In Greek-Turkish affairs, the concern has worsened, arsenic the rapprochement process has not produced results successful resolving the quality implicit delimitation of the EEZ/continental shelf oregon different issues arising connected the ground.

Athens, however, arsenic the Prime Minister himself has repeatedly emphasized recently, without illusions, is proceeding with an unprecedented armament programme for our country, to fortify its deterrent capability—something that simultaneously enhances its negotiating power.

The differences

The confrontation betwixt the 2 countries implicit Maritime Spatial Planning maps and Marine Parks has revealed the afloat model of disputes successful the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean. It confirmed Turkey’s approaches regarding delimitation, which permission nary country for optimism astir adjacent insignificant advancement successful this area. And portion this confrontation remains astatine the level of maps and statements, the aforesaid cannot beryllium said astir the lawsuit of the survey for the Crete–Cyprus electricity interconnection cablegram (GSI).

This case, having already developed successful the field, represents an unfastened coiled successful Greek-Turkish relations, arsenic it is not simply astir a cablegram but straight concerns Greece’s quality and determination to workout its lawful sovereign rights—not successful a “disputed area,” but wrong its delimited EEZ.

Greece’s determination to licence the blocks southbound of Crete with the “vehicle” of U.S. institution Chevron’s entry—thus challenging the Libyan broadside of the Turkey–Libya Memorandum—has brought the 2 countries into an underground competition. Athens has truthful acold persuaded Benghazi not to ratify the Memorandum and Tripoli to participate talks connected EEZ delimitation, portion Mr. Erdogan, adjacent publically this week, fundamentally called connected General Haftar to ratify the Memorandum. Turkish diplomacy is present focusing its value successful that direction.

The caller “thorn” of the SAFE program

In caller weeks, different superior thorn has been added to bilateral relations, possibly the astir irritating 1 for Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Athens’ explicit commitment, voiced personally by the Prime Minister, that Greece volition not let into the €150 cardinal SAFE program for Europe’s rearmament a state that threatens EU subordinate states with war. Moreover, helium has stated that helium volition rise the contented of lifting the casus belli with the Turkish president.

Turkey and Erdogan, who boast astir the achievements of the Turkish defence industry, person besides invested politically successful Turkey’s introduction into this program, fundamentally seeking to enforce a “special relationship” with Europe, wherever Turkey would bask rights and benefits without obligations. It is evident that Athens’ and Nicosia’s veto volition importantly load relations.

This comes astatine a clip erstwhile Turkey has launched a run against the measures Cyprus is taking for its defence (with Israeli BARAK missiles), portion pro-government media and analysts substance the climate, claiming that Israel and its “allies” are orchestrating Turkey’s encirclement.

Athens has besides noted that Ankara chose the timing, conscionable earlier the planned gathering of the 2 leaders, to contented a NAVTEX for the Piri Reis technological surveys, disputing the country of Greek competence to contented NAVTEX and indirectly Greece’s imaginable continental shelf. The Piri Reis was inactive docked successful the larboard of Izmir, but the NAVTEX remains valid until September 25…

And of course, an highly hard infinitesimal volition travel erstwhile the treatment turns to Gaza, arsenic Greece has maintained a balanced stance—reflected successful its positions astatine the General Assembly and the UN Security Council—whereas Erdogan is uncontrollable erstwhile helium lashes retired against Israel, considering those who bash not travel his enactment arsenic “accomplices successful genocide.”

The Greek Prime Minister’s gathering with the Turkish President volition beryllium a hard one, reminiscent of older times, investigating the resilience of relations truthful that specified a gathering tin beryllium a spot wherever truths are spoken without starring to ruptures and tensions.