The hard equilibrium of maintaining issues successful the Aegean, contempt the ever-rising hostility successful Greek-Turkish relations with the “unfurling” of each Turkish claims successful the tract and Athens’ absorption to this policy, is being sought by Athens from the hard gathering of Kyriakos Mitsotakis with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan connected the sidelines of the UN General Assembly successful New York.
The clime has been importantly aggravated successful caller months, some by provocative moves and challenges to Greek sovereign rights and by the information that Ankara often seems to respond spasmodically to moves by Athens to support its sovereign rights and fortify the country’s defense.
This clime is exacerbated by the planetary situation owed to the situation successful Gaza, wherever Turkey is raising the banner of the anti-Israel front, adjacent accusing immoderate countries that inactive support relations with Israel of being “complicit successful the committee of genocide.”
The gathering was up successful the aerial until the past minute, chiefly owed to the choky UNGA docket and the information that the 2 leaders’ beingness successful New York coincided lone implicit the play of September 23-24, erstwhile determination were already a plethora of General Assembly commitments.
Continual postponements
As it has been a agelong clip since determination has been a acme (apart from the little talks they had successful June successful The Hague successful the NATO framework) and the celebrated High Cooperation Council has been perpetually postponed since January, it was felt by some sides that a awesome should beryllium fixed that the process remains alive.
However, nary 1 hides the interest that this gathering whitethorn bring retired with greater strength the problems, aged and new, that person arisen since December 2023, erstwhile Messrs Mitsotakis and Erdogan signed the Athens Declaration with the anticipation that it would pb to a alteration of people successful Greek-Turkish relations.
Almost 2 years later, not lone has determination been nary advancement successful the Gerapetritis-Fidan talks and the Political Dialogue for the commencement of substantive discussions connected the delimitation of the EEZ/shelf, but each of Turkey’s differences and claims person moved from the level of rhetoric to the field.
Many of the tensions that are being caused are based connected Turkey’s effort to respond to Greece’s moves to workout its sovereign rights and frankincense interruption the cognition that it wants to enforce that the Athens Declaration besides means self-limitation successful the workout of sovereign rights.
The Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) was a archetypal test, arsenic it captured the maximum of Greek claims to maritime zones, provoking an contiguous absorption from Turkey, some with its ain MSP and with statements and announcements that papers the full web of its disputes. The halfway of these positions is that the median enactment is calculated connected the ground of the mainland coastline, wholly ignoring that islands bash not automatically nutrient maritime zones beyond 6 nautical miles, and of course, the “grey zone” mentation and casus belli is besides reintroduced.
The Greek IHL, of course, remains astatine the level of announcements and has not been submitted to the Commission. But its implementation connected the crushed volition beryllium tested by Turkey’s reaction.
However, the 3 issues that represent a trial of spot for Greek-Turkish relations astatine this signifier are: Greece’s cognition towards Ankara successful the SAFE programme, the electrical interconnection betwixt Cyprus and Crete and the contention successful the Libyan field.
The Greek Prime Minister has repeatedly stated that Turkey’s information successful the 150 cardinal euro SAFE programme for the rearmament of Europe volition not beryllium fixed the greenish airy arsenic agelong arsenic Turkey continues to endanger a subordinate authorities with war. Despite the “windows” that are unfastened for Turkish companies to enactment successful the program, the wide presumption of Athens and Nicosia to veto specified a task is causing choler successful Turkey.
Erdogan himself considers his country’s defence industry, which is present an important instrumentality for expanding and expanding Ankara’s governmental and diplomatic influence, to beryllium the “pride” of his astir 25-year tenure arsenic Turkey’s leader. For Greece and Cyprus to enactment obstacles successful the mode of specified a task is not tolerated by the Turkish leadership.
Mitsotakis has stated that helium volition rise the contented of the casus belli with the Turkish leader, and this treatment volition beryllium of peculiar interest, arsenic Turkey considers this presumption a non-negotiable contented and a pillar of the “Blue Homeland”. After each these years, the lone happening it has been discussing during the exploratory talks was the constricted hold of Greek territorial waters and, astatine immoderate rate, not successful the maritime country of the East Aegean islands and the Dodecanese.
The contented of electrical interconnection is simply a captious issue, which, of course, volition not beryllium discussed successful its method dimension. But present too, Turkey has shown its determination, stating that nary task successful the portion volition instrumentality spot without its approval. For Greece, it is simply a large contented due to the fact that it is fundamentally the archetypal determination to workout sovereign rights successful the EEZ declared by the Greek-Egyptian Agreement and, astatine the aforesaid time, the archetypal effort to situation the Turkish-Cypriot Memorandum. The longer the task is delayed, the greater the hazard of consolidating the representation that the Turkish-Colombian Memorandum is “stronger” than the Greek-Egyptian delimitation.
On this issue, however, the gathering that Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis volition person connected Tuesday successful New York with Cypriot President Nicos Christodoulides is of peculiar importance, successful an effort to dispel the clouds that person been created connected the juncture of the electrical interconnection and to find a mode to flooded the obstacles that person arisen done the work of the Cypriot side.
Athens would astatine slightest expect the Turkish broadside to recognize that the contented of the interconnections does not lone interest Greece but besides Turkey itself, and thus, a workable mode should beryllium recovered truthful that the probe and laying of cables tin beryllium carried retired without raising issues of sovereignty and sovereign rights, arsenic these works are escaped successful planetary waters.
Various ideas person been connected the table, including notifying each coastal countries successful the portion of the survey enactment by the survey vessel. However, the question volition stay arsenic to which state volition workout jurisdiction and contented the NAVTEX to behaviour the work.
It is besides a substance to beryllium explored that the Egyptians person started to beforehand the thought of a determination league to transportation retired the interconnectivity enactment and, astatine a aboriginal stage, the delimitation.
In summation to the different problems that arise, this look runs up against Turkey’s request that the pseudo-state enactment connected an adjacent footing.
Libya, particularly the occidental side, has successful caller years been a privileged tract for the workout of Turkish influence, which led to the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum. Athens, with large delay, has made an opening to some sides of Libya, attempting to reverse the existing climate, reconstruct channels, and exploit the diplomatic leverage offered by some its rank of the EU and its beingness arsenic a non-permanent subordinate of the UN Security Council.
This mobility has irritated Ankara, which retains beardown interests successful the state and exerts power connected some sides, having present re-established relations with General Haftar. Ankara is offering Eastern Libya economical and commercialized relations and equilibrium with Tripoli by asking Haftar to ratify the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum. On the different hand, Tripoli responds to this “disloyalty” of Ankara by agreeing with Athens to commencement a dialog connected the delimitation of the EEZ/shelf.
Of course, the process that George Gerapetritis and his counterpart from the Tripoli authorities agreed to initiate past Wednesday is highly hard and improbable to travel to a conclusion. This is not lone due to the fact that determination are “heavy weights” connected the table, arsenic the Greek broadside is demanding that the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum beryllium ignored, portion the Libyan broadside is demanding the acceptance of the representation submitted to the UN and the abolition of the median enactment based connected which Greece besides drew the onshore southbound of Crete heading for Chevron.
The Tripoli authorities is transitional, and it is doubtful that immoderate consequent unified authorities volition see itself bound by what has been discussed oregon agreed successful this dialog process. The Gaza contented is different contented of friction, arsenic for Erdogan, a connection that determination indispensable beryllium a ceasefire and the humanitarian situation indispensable beryllium addressed is nary longer capable for him to statement a state “complicit successful Israel’s genocide”. The Turkish president has adjacent said that helium volition beryllium successful New York arsenic “the dependable of Palestine,” and determination tin beryllium nary knowing with Athens successful this discussion. But it is absorbing if the Turkish broadside raises the contented that has dominated the Turkish media successful caller days, and adjacent the Turkish MoD connected Thursday indirectly issued threats, with the inclusion successful the Cyprus National Guard of the Israeli BARAK MX anti-aircraft system, which importantly strengthens the defence of the Republic of Cyprus. Turkish media are already processing conspiracy theories astir Israel’s attempt, done Cyprus and Greece, to situation Turkey, recalling the scenarios of 1998, when, nether menace of force, Cyprus withdrew its S-300s.
Joint exercises
In the discourse of the rivalries successful the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey’s noted rapprochement with Egypt should not beryllium downplayed. The associated exercises announced for the coming period, the archetypal of this benignant successful 13 years, arsenic good arsenic the intended practice successful the defence industry, are worrying signs. As does the dual sojourn of MIT commandant Ibrahim Kalin to some General Haftar and his Egyptian counterpart, with the purpose of Ankara-Cairo coordination connected Libya. Now, the crippled of determination balances and rivalries is being turned upside down, catalyzed by developments successful Gaza and Israel’s increasing isolation from its Arab neighbors. And this backdrop present straight affects Greek-Turkish relations, posing caller challenges for Athens.
Erdogan astatine the White House with F-16 and F-35 connected the agenda
Friday night’s announcement by President Trump that helium volition person Erdogan astatine the White House connected September 25 surely changes the landscape, arsenic this is simply a large improvement that volition further fortify Ankara’s arrogance. President Trump said successful his station that helium looks guardant to welcoming Erdogan, “with whom we person ever had bully relations,” connected September 25, and that up of the gathering they are moving connected respective commercialized and subject deals, including a large-scale acquisition of Boeing aircraft, a large F-16 woody and the continuation of F-35 talks, which are expected to reason positively. Donald Trump confirmed reports implicit the past 2 days that his son’s sojourn to Turkey and his concealed gathering with Erdogan, wherever helium was offered a generous connection to bargain 300 Boeing craft for Turkish Airlines, and the promotion of large vigor deals, were what opened the White House doorway to the Turkish president.
Of course, a important constituent volition beryllium however the Turkish person volition presumption himself astatine the UN General Assembly connected the Gaza war, arsenic helium has besides turned against the US for its enactment of Israel.
However, it is important for the Turkish person that aft six years, helium has secured an invitation to sojourn the White House.
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