Can Péter Magyar break Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil?

Hungary's incoming Prime Minister Péter Magyar could signifier not lone home argumentation but besides the aboriginal of Europe’s vigor ties with Russia, aft winning the 12 April predetermination and promising to destruct his country’s dependency connected Russian vigor imports by 2035.

Magyar has besides pledged to align Hungary much intimately with EU efforts to diversify lipid and gassupply, a process the EU launched successful 2022 pursuing Russia’s penetration of Ukraine.

But adjacent though shifting distant from outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's reliance connected Russian lipid could accelerate the region’s determination distant from Moscow, it volition not travel without economical and logistical challenges.

"The geographical presumption of neither Russia nor Hungary volition change. Our vigor vulnerability volition besides beryllium present for a while," Magyar told section media a fewer days earlier the election.

"Diversification needs to beryllium strengthened, but this won't hap overnight. If necessary, we volition negociate (with Russia), but we won't go friends," the Hungarian hailing from the Tisza Party added.

Magyar said that helium would reassess financing for the Paks II atomic project, a large Hungarian enlargement task which is being developed successful practice with Russia, portion besides exploring the imaginable to accelerate the deployment of smaller, much affordable modular reactors successful collaboration with partners specified arsenic France and the United States.

For years, outgoing Orbán has steered Hungary on a chiseled way wrong the EU, maintaining beardown vigor links with Moscow adjacent arsenic overmuch of the bloc has worked to chopped dependence connected Russian lipid and state pursuing the warfare successful Ukraine.

Under Orbán, Hungary’s presumption had mostly conflicted with the EU's vigor modulation goal, raising questions astir whether the caller enactment would stay a anemic nexus successful the bloc’s vigor strategy.

The state imported astir 100,000 barrels of Russian crude per time successful 2025, according to analysts astatine S&P Global Energy CERA, accounting for astir 90% of its supply.

Investment and infrastructure

The vigor displacement touted by Magyar, however, would not beryllium immediate, arsenic analysts accidental replacing Russian vigor volition necessitate years of concern successful caller infrastructure and alternate sources.

Dimitar Lilkov, a elder probe serviceman astatine the deliberation vessel Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, pointed to an investigation that shows that Hungary has afloat entree to alternate proviso routes and refineries susceptible of processing non-Russian crude.

The Croatian Adria pipeline, besides known arsenic Janaf, is 1 of these avenues, Lilkov said, adjacent with imaginable little transit costs.

"Alternative options are besides disposable for earthy gas. Such a pivot cannot hap overnight, but is perfectly realistic fixed that determination is governmental volition successful the years to come," Lilkov told Euronews.

"Péter Magyar has already signalled that this diversification would beryllium pursued by the caller government, truthful we tin beryllium hopeful that Hungary yet escapes the Russian vigor chokehold," Lilkov added.

While Orbán had argued that alternatives are much costly, the Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar hailed the Adriatic pipeline arsenic a "reliable and credible way for determination vigor security".

"Our infrastructure is present to fortify resilience, diversification and information crossed Central Europe. And our connection to the Hungarian radical is arsenic wide – Croatia extends a manus of friendship. We privation cooperation, not confrontation. In a clip of uncertainty, bully neighbors physique solutions together," Šušnjar wrote connected X connected 12 April.

Exemptions to Russian vigor imports

Due to their landlocked positions and hard entree to alternate vigor suppliers, Hungary and Slovakia secured exemptions that let continued imports of Russian pipeline lipid until September 2027.

However, the EU is pushing to destruct Russian state imports by 2027, including phasing retired these exemptions with a afloat prohibition connected Russian earthy state scheduled for 30 September 2027.

It remains to beryllium seen whether Magyar volition situation this position, fixed Hungary’s landlocked geography and its vulnerability to vigor constraints exacerbated by the wider vigor situation triggered by the warfare successful Iran, which has raised fears of proviso shortages.

A prohibition connected Russian lipid imports was besides to beryllium projected by the Commission connected 15 April, but the EU enforcement decided to postpone it, a determination linked to the planetary vigor situation and a governmental enactment implicit the Druzhba pipeline.

Druzhba pipeline

Hungary's landlocked geography and Soviet-era infrastructure person near it reliant connected pipelines specified arsenic Druzhba and TurkStream, ensuring a dependable travel of crude and earthy state from the east.

But harm to the Druzhba pipeline, which serves arsenic a captious conduit for Russian lipid to Slovakia and Hungary via Ukraine's territory, has been different contested governmental contented starring up to the 12 April elections.

The Soviet-era pipeline has been damaged since 27 January, with Ukraine saying that a Russian airstrike damaged it. Russia denied it portion Hungary and Slovakia complained astir Ukraine's unwillingness to repair the damaged pipeline, arguing they were suffering from "political blackmail".

The Adria pipeline has efficaciously ensured "uninterrupted proviso to some Hungary and Slovakia" implicit the past fewer weeks, Minister Šušnjar said. However, with Druzhba flows halted, Hungary has pushed to import Russian lipid by oversea via Croatia, but it has yet to get support from the pipeline operator.

The Druzhba pipeline has go shrouded successful uncertainty, with EU officials being highly coy astir sharing details of the EU ngo sent to Ukraine to measure the situation.

The Commission asked Ukraine to let inspectors to oversee the damage to the pipeline, successful enactment with a cardinal request from Hungary's Orbán, which has maintained a veto connected a captious €90 cardinal indebtedness to Ukraine until the pipeline resumes operations.

Yet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said connected 10 April that the Druzhba pipeline was getting repaired and was expected to beryllium fixed "this spring".

Meanwhile, Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico, a longtime state of Orbán who has been insisting connected the speedy resumption of lipid flows done Druzhba, suggested Magyar should beryllium funny successful fixing the pipeline.

"I judge determination remains a beardown involvement connected the portion of Slovakia, Hungary, and Central Europe arsenic a full successful restoring the cognition of the Druzhba lipid pipeline," Fico said connected X, aft the Hungarian elections.

Last September, Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Saková discussed the telephone to extremity Russian supplies via the Druzhba pipeline with US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, explaining that Slovakia needed conditions for diversifying its proviso truthful it would not chopped disconnected its system oregon industry.