Calm waters risk turning turbulent again

Tensions betwixt Greece and Turkey resurfaced aft Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan avoided a scheduled gathering with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis successful New York, raising questions successful Athens astir the aboriginal of bilateral relations.

The incidental formed uncertainty implicit whether the “calm waters” of the past two years whitethorn springiness way to renewed turbulence, akin to the near-constant tensions betwixt 2018 and 2023 successful the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean.

Diplomatic unease had already been growing. In May, Ankara came adjacent to ratifying the amerciable Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum and unexpectedly announced plans for the probe vessel Piri Reis to run successful the Aegean, though that determination ne'er materialized.

Erdogan has reinforced a much assertive stance. He precocious described the Eastern Mediterranean west of Cyprus arsenic a “Turkish lake,” appeared beside US President Donald Trump during meetings with Arab and Muslim leaders, and is expected to visit the White House connected Thursday with a substantial agenda.

Athens acknowledges it cannot straight power these developments but intends to proceed working done aggregate channels within the US governmental system. Turkey still faces legislative roadblocks stemming from its deployment of Russian S-400 missiles.

On the bilateral front, Mitsotakis emphasized the value of dialogue. Speaking successful New York with Wall Street Journal Editor-in-Chief Emma Tucker, helium said Greece believes connection channels with Turkey indispensable stay open. That stance will usher Athens up of a possible, though uncertain, gathering with Erdogan connected October 2 astatine the European Political Community summit. Erdogan does not ever be such gatherings, sometimes delegating information to Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

Athens is besides bracing for caller challenges. The planned restart of probe for an energy interconnection betwixt Greece and Cyprus could trigger friction. Turkey has voiced objections to Chevron’s enactment south of Crete and whitethorn effort to downplay US engagement arsenic a warrant of Greek sovereignty. Ankara could proceed with its ain surveys successful Libyan-assigned blocks oregon reason that firm exploration choices bash not awesome designation of maritime boundaries.

For Athens, the astir concerning anticipation remains a Turkish instrumentality to exploratory activities successful areas eastbound of Crete, under the Turkey-Libya memorandum.